IMF Expects Armenian Economy to Grow by 4,5% in 2019
According to Reuters, Armenia’s economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund is 4.5%, lower than the 5.2% in 2018, reflecting the weaker global environment and lower copper prices. The Armenian government expects the growth rate to be 4.9 percent in 2019.
According to Yulia Ustyugova from IMF, this number reflects smaller contribution to growth from final consumption amid weaker remittances this year, although this might be compensated by higher investment. She stated that the risks were mostly external, including "increased global trade tensions, turbulence in global financial markets or a pickup in regional geopolitical tensions".
The IMF assists the “ambitious” reform plan of the Armenian government, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
The Government’s plan includes amending the tax and customs regulations and aims at creating a better business environment and a more intense fight against corruption.
According to Ustyugova, the IMF anticipates the current account deficit to decline to 6-7 percent of gross domestic product in 2019, down from 8 percent last year.
In February, the IMF said it had reached a staff-level agreement on a $250-million three-year precautionary stand-by agreement with Armenia "to support the new government's reform plans and strengthen resilience against external shocks".